The people betting on catastrophic world events – podcast

Prediction markets allow you to put money on everything from the US attacking Iran to Jesus returning. Saahil Desai explains their dizzying riseIn the early hours of 3 January, Donald Trump ordered a surprise attack on the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, to kidnap the country’s leader, Nicolás Maduro. Millions of Venezuelans’ lives were thrown into uncertainty. Politicians at home and abroad scrambled to respond. It seemed this was something no one had seen coming. Except one person did actually predict it.In the hours before the attack, someone - and we have no way of knowing who - placed a series of bets that Donald Trump would oust Maduro on a prediction market platform, netting them nearly $500,000 when it happened. These platforms allow their users not just to bet on whoever’s going to win the Super Bowl, but also on world events. Heavily regulated under the Biden administration, these apps have enjoyed a huge boom in popularity since Trump came to power. Continue reading...